Goodnews: Four new players now here for oilers.
Sportsnet insider Jeff Marek mentioned on a Feb. 28 edition of Sportsnet Central that the Edmonton Oilers could look at the Nashville Predators as potential trade partners. The Oilers have various options this trade deadline for where they might want to upgrade their roster, and the Predators have a good mix of players who could be valuable additions.
Tommy Novak
The Oilers have struggled to get consistent scoring from their bottom-six forwards all season. In 2022-23, the Oilers outscored opponents 74-60 at 5-on-5 without McDavid or Draisaitl on the ice. So far, under head coach Kris Knoblauch, they have been outscored 26-25 without the dynamic duo. That’s a 36.67 percent decrease in goals scored per game by the Oilers’ depth.
How can Edmonton try to address this in a deal with Nashville? Enter Tommy Novak. The bottom-six centre has scored 2.05 points per hour (P/60) at 5-on-5, which is second best on the Predators. He would instantly become one of the Oilers’ most productive depth forwards. Despite his underwhelming speed, Novak is a terrific transition player. Take a look at where his percentiles rank in zone entries and exits compared to the rest of the league (Per All Three Zones):
Novak’s ability to get the puck out of his own zone and attack the offensive blue line is exceptional. While his offence off the cycle is much less impressive, pairing him with a good cycler like Ryan McLeod could make for an excellent combination.
As with any player, Novak isn’t without his weaknesses. He is only at 44.6 percent in the faceoff dot and doesn’t kill penalties. Luckily, I don’t see penalty killing as necessary; I think it would be a blessing in disguise. Putting Novak at center would likely push Edmonton’s fourth-line center Derek Ryan out of the lineup, forcing the Oilers to elevate McLeod and Warren Foegele’s roles on the penalty kill. They have had much stronger results on the kill this season than Ryan, and I’m surprised they haven’t been utilized more.
It’s unclear whether or not the Oilers could re-sign Novak next season; he is a pending UFA set for a sizable raise from his current salary of just $800k. Even so, he would make a much more positive impact on the bottom-six than any of the current fourth-line players. He could be an attractive option if the price is right.
Alexandre Carrier
“Should the Oilers upgrade Cody Ceci?” has been a hotly contested debate in Oil Country this season. The bottom line with this discussion comes down to this: Is there a significant upgrade for Ceci available at a reasonable cost? I would argue strongly that Alexandre Carrier is that guy.
The Nurse and Ceci Pairing plays a major role, so any addition would need to be able to handle the difficult top four minutes. Per PuckIQ, Carrier has spent 39.4 percent of his time-on-ice (TOI) against elite competition, which is the most of any Predators defenseman. Ceci plays about 32 percent of his TOI against elites. Additionally, Carrier’s goal share (GF%) against elite competition is 57.1 percent compared to Ceci’s 42.9 percent.
During their second-round series against the Vegas Golden Knights last spring, the Oilers took a beating with Ceci on the ice to the tune of one goal for and eight against. Whether it’s regular season or playoffs, the Nurse and Ceci duo has been a weak link. They aren’t good enough at defending the blue line, retrieving pucks, or transitioning out of the defensive zone. It leads to the opposition hemming them into their zone and exploiting them. Carrier brings a proven track record of denying entries, moving the puck up-ice, and outscoring the toughest competition. That is a significant upgrade.
Carrier’s $2.5 million price tag would be easy to stomach, especially with Ceci presumably getting sent to Nashville in exchange. Still, the cost to bring him back in free agency would be more expensive.
Yakov Trenin
Given his offensive production, Novak is probably the ideal bottom-six forward for the Oilers to add from Nashville, but what if they’re aiming for a cheaper upgrade to slot into the fourth line? Someone with a little more sandpaper. Yakov Trenin would be the guy. His 166 hits this season are more than any player on the Oilers not named Evander Kane, proving he can bring an extra edge that the team is missing.
Trenin is also an elite penalty killer. He has the lowest on-ice goals against and expected goals-against among Predators penalty killers. Edmonton’s kill has been highly inconsistent this season, and Trenin would help stabilize it.
Of course, he wouldn’t do much to solve the Oilers’ depth-scoring problem; with a 0.82 P/60, his production rate is only a hair higher than Ryan’s 0.75 P/60. He won’t move the needle much offensively, but the defensive ability and physicality could be worth making him part of a trade package.
Juuse Saros
Let me get this out of the way: the odds of the Oilers trading for Juuse Saros are almost zero. But should they? Stuart Skinner has a slightly higher goals saved above expected (GSAx) than Saros this season, mostly thanks to his incredible run in December and January. The issue with Skinner is that he is incredibly streaky, and when he is off his game, he displays incredible difficulty stopping high-danger shots. This season, his high-danger save percentage (HDSV%) is .789, good for 57th in the NHL (minimum 600 minutes). Saros does a much better job handling difficult shots, with a .821 HDSV%. The shots don’t get easier in the playoffs, so Skinner must do a better job.
While Saros is a much more proven goalie than Skinner, the idea of a Saros trade is more ‘pie in the sky’ than realistic. If Edmonton makes the correct upgrades elsewhere on the roster, they can win a Stanley Cup with Skinner, so I expect them to attempt to do that. He’s caught fire for stretches before; he just needs to show up at the right time.
